On September 30 this blog covered Polymarket's "Fed Decision in October?" market after it swung to a 65c "no change" favorite. At 12:30 UTC today the September jobs report landed, and the 12:40 UTC print took "no change" from 74.5c to 84.5c. As of 2026-10-02 12:51 UTC it trades at 82.5c, with "25 bps increase" at 15.5c, down from 33.5c on September 30. Numbers below are from Gamma and the CLOB, fetched 2026-10-02 12:51 UTC.
01The dataA 29,000 print against a much higher consensus
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report, as reported by CNBC, showed nonfarm payrolls up a seasonally adjusted 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from 4.1%. CNBC's Dow Jones survey expected 84,000 jobs; a Bloomberg preview had 90,000. Revisions also leaned negative: August was revised down to 133,000, July now shows a loss of 10,000, and the two months together are 60,000 jobs lower than previously reported.
Context matters for how the market read it. The Fed raised its target range 25 basis points on September 16 and the next meeting is October 27-28. Officials had been arguing over timing rather than direction: per Newsquawk's October 1 wrap, Vice Chair Jefferson said the Fed may take more time before deciding its next move, echoing Williams, and money-market pricing for an October hike was 24%, against nearly 70% the prior week. Inflation pressure had not gone away: the ISM manufacturing prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1 the same day. A hike needs a labor market that can take one, and this report gave the hold side an argument.
02The chartA drift up on October 1, then a step at 12:40 UTC
"No change" opened the window at 63.5c. During the US session on October 1 it climbed in steps, to 71.5c in the 15:40 UTC print and 75.5c at 17:40 UTC, the same day as the Jefferson remarks, though the wrap gives no time for them so this post does not tie one to the other. It then sat at 74.5c through the night and the morning, 74.5c at the 12:30 UTC print when the report came out. The next print, 12:40 UTC, read 84.5c: a 10c move in one print, with "25 bps increase" dropping from 24.5c to 14.5c. By 12:50 UTC both had given back 1c (82.5c and 15.5c). The timing lines up with the release, but a single print cannot prove the cause.
03What's priced nowA hold favorite with a deep bid and a thin offer
FED DECISION, OCTOBER YES 24H
No change 82.5c +19.0
Increase 25 bps 15.5c -20.0
Increase 50+ bps 0.45c -0.1
Decrease 25 bps 0.55c +0.1
Decrease 50+ bps 0.25c n/a
"No change" has a 1c spread, 82c bid and 83c offer. Resting size is lopsided: 6,145 shares bid at 82c and 6,148 at 81c, but 151,485 at 80c, against 21,660 offered at 83c and 57,200 at 84c. "25 bps increase" is also a 1c spread (15c bid, 16c offer), with 60,108 shares bid at 15c and 14,664 offered at 16c. Over the past 24 hours the event traded $2.76M against $2.62M of resting liquidity; "no change" accounts for $961,018 and "25 bps increase" for $526,728. Heavy turnover on both legs is what a repricing looks like, rather than a thin market drifting.
The two live legs sum to 98c, with the remainder spread across the tails: the three cut and 50+ bp hike outcomes together are priced near 1.3c. As the arithmetic shows, the market is pricing October as a hold or a quarter-point hike, and the hike now carries roughly one chance in six. The 82.5c and 15.5c headline prices are the midpoints of those 82c/83c and 15c/16c quotes, so a 1c spread is also the margin of error on any single number in this post. The 24h column is Gamma's one-day change in that headline price, so it includes the September 30 to October 1 drift as well as today's step: about 8c of the 19c in "no change" came after the 12:30 UTC report, and the rest before it.
04What would move it nextAnother round of Fed speakers and data before October 27-28
This market moved 10c on a data print with no Fed speaker involved, and moved 16c in one print on September 29 when Williams's remarks circulated, so either kind of input can move it. Between now and the meeting the calendar includes more Fed commentary and the next inflation readings; yesterday's ISM prices-paid reading shows inflation data is still in play on the other side. Note also that a hold in October does not take the hike off the table: Williams and Kashkari both talked about one more increase this year, and this market only covers the October meeting. polymarket-tui keeps this ladder, its book, and its price chart on one screen, so the next print shows up as it happens.
$ uv tool install polymarket-tui
$ polymarket-tui
No account is needed to browse markets, books, and charts. The install page has Homebrew and one-liner options.