On September 24 this blog covered Polymarket's "Fed Decision in October?" market breaking toward a hike: 31.5c "no change," 67.5c "25 bps increase." As of 2026-09-30 12:46 UTC that picture has reversed. "No change" trades at 65c and "25 bps increase" at 33.5c, after a comment from New York Fed President John Williams that there was "no need for urgency," and a second jump this morning that this post cannot tie to a headline. Numbers below are from Gamma and the CLOB, fetched 2026-09-30 12:46 UTC.
01What Williams saidOne more hike is likely, but not necessarily next month
On Tuesday, September 29, Williams spoke to an audience at the University at Buffalo. In the prepared remarks, as reported by Reuters, he said: "With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency." He also said that if the economy evolves in line with his forecast, "one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target." That is a hike still on the table, with the timing left open. The Fed raised its target range 25 basis points on September 16 in a 12-0 vote, and the next meeting is October 27-28.
The market had spent five days on the other side of that idea. After the September 24 post, "no change" sat between 30.5c and 33.5c through Tuesday's US morning, and "25 bps increase" between 66.5c and 68.5c.
02The chartTwo steps: the speech, then this morning
The first step came in the 10-minute print at 18:10 UTC on September 29, when "no change" went from 31.5c to 47.5c and "25 bps increase" from 67.5c to 50.5c. That is a 16-point move in one print, the same afternoon Williams's prepared remarks were published. The timing fits the speech, though one print cannot prove it was the cause. Over the following hours "no change" climbed to 55.5c by 21:30 UTC and held there overnight. The second step is the more surprising one: at 12:40 UTC today "no change" jumped from 54.5c to 65.5c in a single print, having drifted between 54.5c and 58.5c since the overnight hours. I searched for a Fed speech, data release, or headline in that window and found none I could verify, so it is not attributed here. A large move with no matching public news is worth noting in itself: it may be one large order, and this post does not claim to know.
03What's priced nowA hold favorite backed by a thick book
FED DECISION, OCTOBER YES 24H
No change 65.0c +34.5
Increase 25 bps 33.5c -35.0
Increase 50+ bps 0.55c -0.3
Decrease 25 bps 0.45c flat
Decrease 50+ bps 0.25c flat
Both live legs have a 1c spread. "No change" shows 4,884 shares bid at 65c against 5,253 offered at 66c, with 32,589 more at 64c and 39,859 at 67c. "25 bps increase" shows 2,369 bid at 33c against 27,843 offered at 34c. The book is deep on both sides, so this reads as traders repositioning rather than a thin market drifting. The event has traded $2.61M over the past 24 hours against $1.82M of resting liquidity, higher turnover than the $1.64M the Barr post logged on September 24. "No change" alone accounts for $928,406 of that, and "25 bps increase" for $678,266.
04What would move it nextWilliams did not rule October out, and neither does the market
Williams described "no urgency," not "no hike," and the market still gives October's increase 33.5c, about one chance in three. The September 24 speakers pushed one way and this one pushed back; the price moved with each. Between now and October 27-28 there are more Fed speakers and data releases, and this market has now shown it will move double digits in a single print on either kind of input. Earlier this week other trackers, such as CME FedWatch on September 23, showed hike odds above 70%, in line with where Polymarket sat then; a price that has since halved is a reminder to check the timestamp on any odds you read. polymarket-tui keeps this ladder, its book, and its price chart on one screen, so the next move shows up as it happens.
$ uv tool install polymarket-tui
$ polymarket-tui
No account is needed to browse markets, books, and charts. The install page has Homebrew and one-liner options.