Polymarket runs the same question on two clocks: does shipping through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by August 15, or by August 31? As of 2026-08-06 09:17 UTC the near date is close to dead - 1.5c bid / 1.8c ask - while the far date still holds real odds at 15c bid / 16c ask, on $821,127 traded in the last 24 hours. Both prices moved this week: a Houthi missile hit a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea on August 5, the same day President Trump told Fox News a deal to reopen the strait could land "tomorrow or the next day." Numbers below are from Gamma and the CLOB order book, fetched at that time.
01Two dates, one ladderWhy the near contract gave up and the far one didn't
Both markets belong to the same "Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal" series and resolve on identical terms - only the deadline differs:
HORMUZ NORMALIZATION LADDER, 2026-08-06 09:17 UTC
Normal by Aug 15 bid 1.5c ask 1.8c vol24h $413,412
Normal by Aug 31 bid 15c ask 16c vol24h $821,127
A contract at 1.5c isn't "no chance," it's "priced like a lottery ticket" - the market has essentially concluded that nine more days of a strait running at a fraction of pre-war traffic won't flip to normal that fast. The August 31 contract is a different bet: with 25 days left, 15c says there's a real if unlikely path to a reopening deal landing and traffic actually rebuilding in time. The gap between the two prices is the market's honest read on how much a ceasefire announcement differs from ships actually moving again.
02What "normal" means hereThe resolution source is a shipping-traffic count, not a headline
Both contracts resolve Yes only if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls - arrivals of container, dry bulk, tanker, and other cargo ships - for the Strait of Hormuz at or above 60 on any date before the deadline. That's a hard, published number, not a vibe: a ceasefire announcement alone doesn't resolve this market, ships showing up does. Current throughput is well under that bar. Polymarket's own market context puts daily transits at roughly 10-20 versus a pre-disruption average near 60, and U.S. Central Command said in early August that its forces had "assisted more than 1,000 vessels" transiting the strait over the preceding three months - an average near 11 a day. Getting a 7-day average to 60 means roughly tripling to sextupling today's pace and holding it for a week straight, which is why even good news moves these prices in small steps rather than jumps to certainty.
03A week of headlines, a chart of the reactionHope on Tuesday, a tanker hit on Wednesday
The chart tracks both contracts since July 27, when the August 15 market was created. The shape is one climb and one partial reversal:
Both contracts jumped starting August 2, when Trump canceled a planned US-Israel strike on Iran and cited progress toward "the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT" as part of the reason. They kept climbing through August 4, the day Bloomberg reported Hormuz traffic was running "at a trickle" even as Iran and Oman were said to be nearing a framework for a safe shipping corridor - a headline that read as bad news but landed as the market's high point, the August 31 contract peaking near 18.5c. Then, on August 5, the reaction ran the other way. A 24-hour snapshot shows both contracts giving back a chunk of that climb:
HORMUZ LADDER, 24H AGO -> NOW (AUG 6 09:17 UTC)
Normal by Aug 15 3.2c -> 1.65c
Normal by Aug 31 16.5c -> 15.5c
Why "reopening soon" didn't lift the price
The Houthi attack on August 5 hit the Saudi tanker Wafa in the northern Red Sea near Yanbu - the eighth Saudi tanker targeted since a Houthi blockade began July 22, per Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree. That's a different waterway from the Strait of Hormuz itself, but it landed the same day Trump, in a Fox News interview, said the strait "would be reopened soon" and, asked when an announcement might come, answered "tomorrow or the next day," citing "very good discussions" with Tehran while warning he'd resume strikes if Iran backed out. Iran and Oman were reported close to finalizing a route framework - ships entering the Gulf through an Iranian-controlled channel, exiting through an Omani one - though officials cautioned it wouldn't automatically reopen the strait even if signed. Given a hopeful reopening timeline and a fresh attack landing on the same day, the market chose the attack: both contracts fell rather than rose over the following hours, a sign traders have watched "days away" promises before and are pricing the attack as the more concrete data point until ships actually start moving.
05Reading the book, not just the headlineDepth tells you where the market actually believes something
The order book adds a layer the headline price doesn't: where size is actually resting.
TOP OF BOOK, "NORMAL BY AUG 31?" - YES, 09:17 UTC
bid 15c x 41,166 ask 16c x 45,050
bid 14c x 312,841 ask 17c x 73,226
bid 13c x 1,148,943 ask 18c x 21,563
Over a million shares are resting at 13c bid alone - real capital betting the price doesn't fall much further even if the next few days bring bad news. The August 15 book is a different animal entirely: best bid 1.5c on 5,505 shares, best ask 1.8c on 4,004, with a 0.1c tick size versus August 31's 1c tick - a finer grid that lets a near-zero contract still express small changes in conviction instead of rounding everyone to the same price. Thin books like this move fast and mean-revert hard on news, which is exactly the pattern in this week's chart.
06Watching a ladder like thisFrom the terminal, not a headline scroll
A market pricing a slow-moving shipping statistic can still move 3 points in an afternoon when a tanker gets hit. In polymarket-tui, the Hormuz normalization series shows every dated contract on the ladder with its 24-hour move and live order book side by side, so a fresh attack or diplomatic claim shows up as a price change before it shows up as a headline.
$ uv tool install polymarket-tui
$ polymarket-tui
The install page has Homebrew and one-liner options.