Friday, Iran's foreign minister laid out a concrete seven-day sequence to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket's ladder pricing when the US formally announces the end of its naval blockade on Iran rallied on the news within the hour - then gave it all back overnight once the Wall Street Journal reported Trump had rejected the offer, landing below where the contracts opened the morning before Iran spoke. This is the same ladder this blog has covered twice before, both times on the same pattern: a diplomatic opening, a fast repricing, a reversal. Numbers below are from Gamma and the CLOB, fetched 2026-09-26 11:40 UTC.
01The seven-day planA fixed sequence, laid out to reporters at the UN
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters Friday, September 25, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, that Iran had conveyed a concrete seven-day plan to Washington through Qatar. Under it, fighting stops on every front, including Lebanon; over the plan's first four to five days the US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian shipping, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, and releases roughly $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets; the Strait of Hormuz reopens on day six; and on day seven, talks begin toward a "final deal" covering Iran's nuclear program. Araghchi was blunt about what happens if the US doesn't move: "The choice now rests with the United States. Iran does not accept coercion, threats or intimidation."
Polymarket's "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" ladder moved within the hour. The October 31 contract rose from 34.5c to a 42.5c high by 16:20 UTC, and the December 31 contract rose from 62.4c to a 68.55c high by 18:20 UTC - a real, if partial, repricing toward the plan actually landing.
02The chartRejected by nightfall
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed US officials, that Trump had quickly ruled out Iran's terms; late Friday night he posted an image on Truth Social labeled "Trump Strait" - a callback to his repeated claim that the US effectively controls the waterway already, and a pointed non-answer to a plan built around the US giving Hormuz back. Both contracts cratered inside the next hour: October 31 fell to a 24.5c low by 00:50 UTC and December 31 to a 56.45c low by 07:30 UTC, each landing below its own level from before Araghchi ever spoke. Both steadied a little by morning - settling 26.5c and 56.8c as of 2026-09-26 11:40 UTC, down 7 and 5.1 points respectively over the trailing 24 hours per Gamma's own change field, even after the intraday round trip.
03What's priced nowA long stalemate, not a near-term deal
BLOCKADE ENDS BY... YES 24H
October 15 15.0c -4.0
October 31 26.5c -7.0
November 30 38.5c -6.0
December 31 56.8c -5.1
March 31, 2027 69.0c -8.0
Every live date on the ladder fell over the past 24 hours - not just the two nearest ones - which is the market saying the offer changed the odds of eventually reaching a deal only a little, while making a fast one this fall less likely, not more. The books stayed real through the swing rather than emptying out: October 31 shows $4,354 bid at 26c against $5,458 offered at 27c, and December 31 a tighter but thinner $795.54 bid at 56.6c against a 1c-wide ask. The event carried $629,219 of volume over the past 24 hours and $2.73M over the past week against $534,419 of resting liquidity, with 643 comments on the thread - among the most-discussed live events on the site.
04What would move it nextIran is waiting on a response that hasn't come
As of Saturday, Iran says it is still waiting for an official US answer to the plan - the WSJ report and Trump's Truth Social post are not the same thing as Washington formally rejecting it through Araghchi's own channel, Qatar. Trump has separately said he expects the bombing campaign to resume after November's midterm elections rather than before, which is consistent with what the ladder prices: March 31 sits at 69c against October 31's 26.5c, a market betting the standoff outlasts the fall far more than it bets on a quick reopening. This is the third time this blog has covered this exact ladder's whiplash - once in August when a Saudi-Omani framework collapsed on Iran's own demand list, and again weeks later when a Muscat meeting moved it the other way. The pattern holds: this ladder moves fast on any diplomatic headline and gives most of it back within a day. polymarket-tui keeps the full ladder and its price chart on one screen, so the next move shows up as it happens rather than after the fact.
$ uv tool install polymarket-tui
$ polymarket-tui
No account is needed to browse markets, books, and charts. The install page has Homebrew and one-liner options.