Trump's US-led "Board of Peace" announced on July 30 that Hamas had signed a Gaza disarmament framework - the first time the group has accepted any weapons framework in the war. Polymarket's "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" market spiked from 44c to a 93.5c peak within the hour. Israeli officials called the deal's terms unacceptable within a day, and the price crashed back to the low 60s by that evening. As of 2026-08-01 08:39 UTC it prices at 61.5c, bid 61c / ask 62c. Numbers below are from the Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched at that time.
01A breakthrough with a gap in itWhat was announced, and what wasn't
On July 30, Hamas signed a disarmament accord in El-Alamein, Egypt, brokered by Trump's Board of Peace under a 15-point plan: Hamas commits to giving up weapons and Israel commits to withdrawing forces from Gaza. Trump called it historic. Israel's government did not agree. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office said the deal fell short of what Israel had demanded, and a far-right cabinet minister called it "unacceptable." A senior US official summed up the gap plainly: "Israel didn't believe we'd be able to secure the hostage releases or recover the bodies. Now they don't believe Hamas will actually disarm."
The mechanics explain the skepticism. Officials could not give a timeline for disarming Hamas's fighters or its heavy weapons. The only concrete near-term step is the Gaza police force handing its weapons to the Board of Peace-backed administration within two weeks - a force that does not include most Hamas militants. And Hamas's own leadership has tied full disarmament to the creation of a Palestinian state, a condition Israel's current government rejects outright. The announcement was real; whether it becomes the thing Polymarket's question actually asks about is still open.
02Thirty minutes to a peak, twenty to a crashThe move, in the order book
The market had traded in the low 40s for days before the announcement. At 22:20 UTC on July 30 it was still at 45.5c. Ten minutes later, with the signing news circulating, it jumped to 74c; by 23:00 UTC it hit a 93.5c high. It held in the mid-80s to low-90s through all of July 31 as commentary and official reactions rolled in - Jerusalem Post and Euronews both ran Israeli-skepticism headlines that morning, and NPR reported Hamas officials themselves casting doubt on Trump's framing. None of that alone moved the price. Then, in a tight twenty-minute window from 19:40 to 20:00 UTC on July 31, it fell from 86.5c to 59.5c - the point where the skepticism coverage seems to have actually landed with traders. It has drifted between 59.5c and 67c since, last at 61.5c.
HAMAS DISARM BY DEC 31 (JUL 30 20:00 -> AUG 1 08:39 UTC)
Pre-announcement 45.5c
Peak, post-announcement 93.5c
Post-Israel-rejection low 59.5c
Current 61.5c
What conviction looks like on a five-month contract
This market resolves on or before December 31, 2026 - a much longer runway than the same-day earnings or election markets that usually show up in this space. That shows up in the book. The Yes contract currently bids 61c against a 62c ask, a tight 1c spread, but only $386.75 rests on the bid and $12.24 on the ask right at the touch - thin enough that a modest market order would move the last-traded price by a cent or two. Real size sits a few cents back: $2,092 at 60c, $6,792 at 59c, another $2,043 at 57c. That shape - tight quote, thin at the touch, real depth just behind it - is typical of a market pricing a slow-moving negotiation rather than a single scheduled data print. The event has traded $596,030 over the past 24 hours against $80,710 in resting liquidity and $949,034 since the market opened on June 30.
04Why 61c and not 90cThe resolution rule is stricter than the headline
The market's own rules explain the gap between Trump's "historic" framing and where the price actually settled. It resolves Yes only on a credible, official announcement that Hamas will disarm - partial disarmament counts if it's part of an acknowledged process, but "plans contingent on future conditions" and "statements of intent without a formal policy directive" explicitly do not qualify. Hamas leadership has said full disarmament depends on a Palestinian state being created, a condition Israel's government rejects, and Hamas officials have publicly disputed Trump's characterization of what was actually agreed. Both of those read as exactly the kind of conditional, disputed statement the rules carve out. A 61.5c price says traders think it is more likely than not that some credible disarmament commitment lands by year-end - given that a framework now exists where none did a week ago - without pricing it as close to done.
05Watching a negotiation reprice liveFollowing a story that isn't over
A market like this doesn't resolve in an afternoon - it moves in bursts around statements, deadlines, and walk-backs over months, which is exactly what makes a live terminal useful for tracking it instead of refreshing a news feed. In polymarket-tui, opening the Hamas disarmament event shows the current price and 24-hour move alongside the order book and price history, so a fresh statement from either side shows up in the book before it shows up in a headline.
$ uv tool install polymarket-tui
$ polymarket-tui
The install page has Homebrew and one-liner options.