The FOMC's rate decision lands at 2pm ET (18:00 UTC) today, September 16, 2026, closing a meeting that began yesterday. This blog covered the market's flip toward a hike after August's CPI print on September 12, when "no change" settled near 19.5c and "25 bps increase" near 78.5c. It has kept drifting the same direction since: "no change" now trades 11c bid / 12c ask, and "25 bps increase" 87c bid / 88c ask, after a Reuters poll of economists reversed itself Monday. Numbers below are from Gamma and the CLOB, fetched 2026-09-16 11:51 UTC.
01What changed since the CPI printThe forecasters flipped too
A Reuters poll published Monday, September 14 found 86 of 101 economists - 85% - now expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00% at this meeting, a sharp reversal from the prior week's survey, where more than two-thirds expected no change. The poll cited the same hot August CPI print this blog covered September 12, plus oil holding near $100 a barrel on Middle East supply concerns keeping headline inflation elevated. Nearly 53% of the economists surveyed also expect at least one more hike by March 2027, and a majority no longer sees rate cuts anywhere in 2027 - a materially more hawkish outlook than the market was pricing even a week ago, when Fed Governor Waller's conditional dovish comments (covered here September 4) still had "no change" as a 59.5c favorite.
Polymarket's "Fed Decision in September?" market ground lower with the poll rather than gapping on it: "no change" was still holding a 19.5-21.5c band as of Monday morning, started fading around 13:15 UTC once the poll circulated, and reached a 12.5c close by that evening - an 8-point move inside a day, on a market already primed by the CPI print four days earlier. The FOMC's two-day meeting began the same week, September 15, adding its own quiet pull as trading desks positioned into the blackout period ahead of today's statement.
02The chartA four-day grind from 19.5c to 11.5c
Notice the shape: no single sharp break, just a steady step down from the CPI-print plateau, then a second, smaller bend around the Reuters poll before flattening into an 8.5-11.5c band for "no change" over the meeting's first day. That's a market with most of its repricing already done - the CPI print did the heavy lifting on September 11, and everything since has been confirmation rather than surprise.
03What's priced nowA 76-point favorite, four days after a coin flip's ancestor
FED DECISION, SEPTEMBER YES 24H
No change 12c +1pt
Increase 25 bps 87c flat
Decrease 25 bps 0.2c -0.1pt
Increase 50+ bps 0.7c -0.3pt
Decrease 50+ bps 0.1c flat
Both live legs are still a tight 1c wide, and both books are deep on the side that matters: "increase 25 bps" has 283,220 shares bid at 87c against 343,668 offered at 88c, while "no change" has 152,859 bid at 11c against 241,381 offered at 12c. The other three legs remain priced under a cent and effectively dead. The event has traded $21.8M over the past 24 hours against $16.2M of resting liquidity - roughly double the CPI-flip post's volume four days ago, unsurprising for the actual decision day of one of the most-watched Polymarket events on the platform right now.
04What happens at 2pm ETThis market can resolve within minutes of the statement
Gamma's rules for this event say it "may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued" - no waiting period, no dispute window for the headline number. The Fed releases its policy statement and rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30pm ET; this meeting also includes the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, which can move the "no change" and "increase 25 bps" legs independently of the rate decision itself if the projected pace of future hikes surprises either way. An 87.5c favorite is not a lock - the CPI-flip post four days ago showed how fast this exact market can move on a single data point, and a transcript reads before an order book prices it. polymarket-tui keeps the book and the price chart on one screen for exactly this kind of window, so a statement that moves "no change" from 12c to single digits in the first sixty seconds shows up as it happens.
$ uv tool install polymarket-tui
$ polymarket-tui
No account is needed to browse markets, books, and charts. The install page has Homebrew and one-liner options.